By M Amarjeet Singh

IDSA Strategic Comments

Efforts by the Government of India on the one hand and by non-governmental organizations on the other to bring the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) to the negotiating table have not progressed very far. The rebel group continues its subversive agenda, targeting security forces personnel, bombing crowded market places, oil and gas pipelines and various state establishments and installations.

In one of the latest incidents of violence in Assam, at least 15 people were killed and close to 50 others were wounded on November 5, 2006 in two separate incidents of bomb blasts at the crowded Fancy Bazaar and Noonmati area of Guwahati city. Though there is no evidence yet to establish that the ULFA was involved in the twin blasts, however, going by its past track record, the needle of suspicion points towards it. There is wide speculation that some 'jihadi' groups might have extended support to the ULFA in carrying out the attacks.

It may not be out of context to note that since this incident the ULFA has intensified its subversive agenda. Between November 6 and 16, 2006, at least seven persons including two ULFA militants, two soldiers and three civilians were killed. At the same time there have been at least seven incidents of bomb explosions targeting mainly oil and gas pipelines that run through the eastern oil producing districts of Dibrugarh and Tinsukia. Incidents of bomb explosions in the State have been increasing in the past few years. There were just about 76 blasts in 2004, as against 121 in 2005 and as many as 100 blasts this year as of November 17.

Assam Police sources have claimed that the ULFA has switched over from "difficult and risky" military combat to the more damaging but easy-to-execute jihadi-type operations in urban areas. This change of strategy has been mainly due to stepped up counter-insurgency operations coupled with the ULFA's diminishing cadre strength. These sources have also stated that the outfit gave a crash course to new recruits in handling explosives at its transit bases in the jungles of adjoining Arunachal Pradesh, Garo Hills of Meghalaya and the border areas of Bhutan. In the words of one Assam police official, "planting explosives and lobbing grenades in public places, preferably under cover of darkness, constitute the new modus operandi of ULFA operations."

Pursuant to the Government of India's policy of engaging with any group that abjures the path of violence and seeks resolution of grievances within the framework of the Indian Constitution, several militant groups have come forward for talks. Presently, at least three militant groups in Assam - Dima Halim Daogah (DHD), United People's Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) and National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) - have entered into a ceasefire/suspension of operations agreements with the Union Government. When the ULFA-backed People's Consultative Group (PCG) was constituted in September 2005, there were high hopes among Assamese that the much-cherished peace may finally return to Assam. Unfortunately, the peace initiative to facilitate direct talks between the ULFA and the Union Government has remained a non-starter. The Union Government suspended army operations against the ULFA on August 13, 2006, but called it off just over a month later on September 24 following the ULFA's continued violations of the truce. The final provocation came when ULFA killed a tea estate manager, Harendranath Das, at Digboi town in Tinsukia District on September 23. A day earlier, a policeman was shot dead at Than Gaon village in Dibrugarh District.

Read More